This is nothing we haven't seen before. Ticket sale-driven vaudeville acts gave way to corporate sponsorships to appear in regular radio hours and, eventually, TV shows. Colgate could get Abbott and Costello in front of a whole nation that way, free at point of consumption, wholly as a vehicle for ancillary promotion of toothpastes and soaps.
The golden age of postwar media definitely gave more power to the distributors than to the sponsors (to the point where letting you pull your ads if bad news about your company was running was a standard courtesy). But those years were directly born out of the sponsorship days, as multiple companies started fighting to back the most popular stars and shows of the day.
As the major holding companies scoop up influencers, I have no doubt that the T Mobile Kai Cenat Hour will give way to more robust systems of distribution and monetization of content, with higher quality ad placements than the IAB jokes the internet started out with.
Especially as young people seek out quality in a mess of AI slop, high engagement paid media will allow the best of the best to become entertainment institutions again. If we see this change for what it is, it's a fantastic opportunity for Unilever and other serious companies to be the Colgates of the next media generation.
Before, with newspapers, TV and radio, the content was meant to entertain, so that you would see the advertisement. Today, it's embedded more intelligently into the content.
The value-to-time ratio has been massively compressed by competition. As we become more connected, nearly every field is becoming hypercompetitive. Media is one of the most impacted sectors.
Yes, I completely agree with this framing. If creation costs are collapsing, then all media inevitably becomes marketing, and the real value shifts to what surrounds it: trust, community, belonging.
You can see this very clearly in podcasts right now:
1. Sponsored interruptions — content is the funnel for ads.
2. Guests as promotion — podcasts as platforms to sell products or services.
3. Hosts as community leaders — building tribes that go far beyond the episode, shaping lifestyle and consumer choices.
This progression shows exactly how content stops being the business and becomes the top of funnel for something bigger. The future advantage will belong to those who treat media as an entry point into ecosystems of belonging, not just distribution.
Can I push this a bit further? I believe we are just on the threshold of post-authorship - where meaning is more defined by circulation. Scarcity is the exact opposite of where value is heading - proliferation, adoption, remix...
If we step back, what I am saying is very simple: the thing gets commoditized, value moves away from the thing. The question is where that value goes, but it has to be something scarce or no value will accrue there.
I see - thanks Doug - I'm with you on value drift - but I don't think scarcity is the source of value. I actually think abundance and iteration are the sources of value today.
Doug, this is an exceptional framing — one of the clearest articulations I’ve seen of how GenAI is collapsing creation costs the way the internet collapsed distribution.
Where I’d push further is this: when content becomes abundant, meaning becomes the scarce resource. The complements you describe — fandom, merch, experiences — are real, but I think there’s one more: collaboration itself.
Audiences aren’t just consuming; they’re co-creating, curating, and contextualizing. In a world of infinite content, trust and shared meaning are what still hold value.
Thanks Mark and agree 100%. I think it is critical for traditional media IP holders to loosen the reins on their IP and bring fans into the creation process-that will be another key complement.
Exactly. The real shift happens when fans start shaping the story, not just sharing it. That’s when the line between creator and community disappears. The smartest IP holders won’t just loosen the reins—they’ll make collaboration part of the story.
Dear Doug, this is a good article, with many engagement. I think that the Spanish-speaking community can be also interested. Is it possible to translate part of this post, with credits and links to your newsletter and to you? Many thanks in advance.
Appears unrelated, but blockchain - another technology of this broader confluence of technological revolutions - will enable / is enabling some interesting new complement opportunities.
Brilliant analysis. But what does a large ott service have as a complement? Netflix is still quite watchtime oriented. I haven't understood what the complement could be for liscensed fiction and originals. Other than some merchandising
Just seeing this now, sorry! I think this question is a large part of the motivation behind Netflix's bid for the WBD assets. They have created 1000 originals projects since inception, but very few franchises! It is also interesting to see Disney move toward making Disney+ a fan engagement platform...again, building out the complements around video distribution...
Internet directly disrupted content creation for sure, if we are talking about journalism (newspapers, magazines, radio). iPhone + Wordpress + YouTube brought content creation costs down very dramatically and flooded the market with direct substitutes, and traditional media has suffered accordingly. GenAI is simply the next step in the existing trend line.
Scripted entertainment from Hollywood is a different beast altogether. Don’t see that changing much from a biz model perspective, but the labor market will likely compress.
Interesting, exhausting--and as the fog rolls in, vaguely discouraging, bewildering, slightly blinding and irrelevant. I'm an old town pump. I give it my all and give it all way. A compliment shamefully tickles my fancy. Narcissus can't imagine any complement but the mud puddle in which he claims to see his face and offers to share. Mud pies, anyone? Facials?
This is nothing we haven't seen before. Ticket sale-driven vaudeville acts gave way to corporate sponsorships to appear in regular radio hours and, eventually, TV shows. Colgate could get Abbott and Costello in front of a whole nation that way, free at point of consumption, wholly as a vehicle for ancillary promotion of toothpastes and soaps.
The golden age of postwar media definitely gave more power to the distributors than to the sponsors (to the point where letting you pull your ads if bad news about your company was running was a standard courtesy). But those years were directly born out of the sponsorship days, as multiple companies started fighting to back the most popular stars and shows of the day.
As the major holding companies scoop up influencers, I have no doubt that the T Mobile Kai Cenat Hour will give way to more robust systems of distribution and monetization of content, with higher quality ad placements than the IAB jokes the internet started out with.
Especially as young people seek out quality in a mess of AI slop, high engagement paid media will allow the best of the best to become entertainment institutions again. If we see this change for what it is, it's a fantastic opportunity for Unilever and other serious companies to be the Colgates of the next media generation.
This was great, there is almost the bones of a book in this post.
Before, with newspapers, TV and radio, the content was meant to entertain, so that you would see the advertisement. Today, it's embedded more intelligently into the content.
The value-to-time ratio has been massively compressed by competition. As we become more connected, nearly every field is becoming hypercompetitive. Media is one of the most impacted sectors.
Yes, I completely agree with this framing. If creation costs are collapsing, then all media inevitably becomes marketing, and the real value shifts to what surrounds it: trust, community, belonging.
You can see this very clearly in podcasts right now:
1. Sponsored interruptions — content is the funnel for ads.
2. Guests as promotion — podcasts as platforms to sell products or services.
3. Hosts as community leaders — building tribes that go far beyond the episode, shaping lifestyle and consumer choices.
This progression shows exactly how content stops being the business and becomes the top of funnel for something bigger. The future advantage will belong to those who treat media as an entry point into ecosystems of belonging, not just distribution.
Thanks for the comment and another great example!
Can I push this a bit further? I believe we are just on the threshold of post-authorship - where meaning is more defined by circulation. Scarcity is the exact opposite of where value is heading - proliferation, adoption, remix...
If we step back, what I am saying is very simple: the thing gets commoditized, value moves away from the thing. The question is where that value goes, but it has to be something scarce or no value will accrue there.
I see - thanks Doug - I'm with you on value drift - but I don't think scarcity is the source of value. I actually think abundance and iteration are the sources of value today.
Doug, this is an exceptional framing — one of the clearest articulations I’ve seen of how GenAI is collapsing creation costs the way the internet collapsed distribution.
Where I’d push further is this: when content becomes abundant, meaning becomes the scarce resource. The complements you describe — fandom, merch, experiences — are real, but I think there’s one more: collaboration itself.
Audiences aren’t just consuming; they’re co-creating, curating, and contextualizing. In a world of infinite content, trust and shared meaning are what still hold value.
Thanks Mark and agree 100%. I think it is critical for traditional media IP holders to loosen the reins on their IP and bring fans into the creation process-that will be another key complement.
Exactly. The real shift happens when fans start shaping the story, not just sharing it. That’s when the line between creator and community disappears. The smartest IP holders won’t just loosen the reins—they’ll make collaboration part of the story.
Dear Doug, this is a good article, with many engagement. I think that the Spanish-speaking community can be also interested. Is it possible to translate part of this post, with credits and links to your newsletter and to you? Many thanks in advance.
Yes Salvador, of course!
Many thanks, Doug.
Great analysis.
Appears unrelated, but blockchain - another technology of this broader confluence of technological revolutions - will enable / is enabling some interesting new complement opportunities.
Brilliant analysis. But what does a large ott service have as a complement? Netflix is still quite watchtime oriented. I haven't understood what the complement could be for liscensed fiction and originals. Other than some merchandising
Just seeing this now, sorry! I think this question is a large part of the motivation behind Netflix's bid for the WBD assets. They have created 1000 originals projects since inception, but very few franchises! It is also interesting to see Disney move toward making Disney+ a fan engagement platform...again, building out the complements around video distribution...
Masterful analysis as always
Superb analysis
I’m not sure how to feel about this. Early TV was all sponsored content. As was radio before it, so perhaps it’s really just reversion to the mean?
Internet directly disrupted content creation for sure, if we are talking about journalism (newspapers, magazines, radio). iPhone + Wordpress + YouTube brought content creation costs down very dramatically and flooded the market with direct substitutes, and traditional media has suffered accordingly. GenAI is simply the next step in the existing trend line.
Scripted entertainment from Hollywood is a different beast altogether. Don’t see that changing much from a biz model perspective, but the labor market will likely compress.
Interesting, exhausting--and as the fog rolls in, vaguely discouraging, bewildering, slightly blinding and irrelevant. I'm an old town pump. I give it my all and give it all way. A compliment shamefully tickles my fancy. Narcissus can't imagine any complement but the mud puddle in which he claims to see his face and offers to share. Mud pies, anyone? Facials?
Doug, I feel you are to far upstream yourself to create a deeper, more perceptive analysis of future trends.