Are the graphs of box office sales and music sales adjusted across time for inflation? That seems crucial to understand what is going on. If the sales are going “up” because the dollar just buys less than it did before, that’s a different story.
None of these charts are adjusted for inflation. So, in the case of box office, on a real basis it is worse than this shows. (That was partly the point I was making by showing the difference between box office sales and attendance - attendance is down a lot more than sales because of ticket price increases.) In the music graph, I am showing the relative growth of recorded music and live events. Neither is adjusted for inflation, but the relative point still holds.
Thank you that helps a lot! If you ever have the chance to show inflation-adjusted graphs, that would be super appreciated for analyzing these trends. For example, the "recorded music" line looks like it's fully recovered from 1999, but if you adjust for inflation, I'm pretty sure it's still way down. And the post-COVID box office dip looks even worse when you consider how much inflation we had from 2020-2024.
Thank you! That decline trend looks particularly bad from 2013 on. But also, I had no idea that the 1990s to early 2000s were such a boom time! People were worried about home video killing the box office, but the movies adjusted. Will they adjust again to streaming?
Yes. Something happened in the late 1990's to elevate the entire industry for almost 20 years until the long decline began. I have tried to figure out what could elevate the industry that way at that time and the only three possibilities are DVD/Blu_ray drove incremental attendance, wide adoption of the internet led to attendance, or finally ticket prices rose at a rate faster than inflation.
Sidenote - I prefer using Trimester 2 as the definition of summer moviegoing season. The traditional industry definition is from the first Friday in May through Labor Day. The problem with that is due to the quirks of the Gregorian Calendar, some summers are 123 days long and others are 130, and some summers get an extra weekend. So it is never truly an apples-to-apples comparison. While trimester 2 is always the same.
If you define summer moviegoing season as trimester 2, this summer was the worst year since 1985 when adjusted for inflation. I can't find reliable data older than 1985 so it could be even longer.
Trimester 2 is not the industry's traditional definition of summer (first Friday in May through Labor Day) but I prefer it because it offers a true apples-to-apples way to look at the results annually.
That’s interesting and certainly tracks. The claim I make in this piece is that this is probably due mostly to higher price sensitivity/selectivity by consumers who have so many free options and not the appeal of the content itself. So…it’s a structural problem. Admittedly, it’s hard to prove, it’s just an inference. Wondering if you agree!
It seems the industry elites, supported by the trade rags, want to try to blame the problem on the pandemic. Their hope is that once we have enough distance from the pandemic (and strike) behind us, things will return to normal. That is not happening. At the end of each summer there is a new excuse as to why it will be back to normal next year - "Survive until '25." When I look at those charts of inflation adjusted box office, it is clear the decline began years before the pandemic and the pandemic was an accelerant not a cause.
Something structural has been driving this trend for more than a decade now.
Are the graphs of box office sales and music sales adjusted across time for inflation? That seems crucial to understand what is going on. If the sales are going “up” because the dollar just buys less than it did before, that’s a different story.
None of these charts are adjusted for inflation. So, in the case of box office, on a real basis it is worse than this shows. (That was partly the point I was making by showing the difference between box office sales and attendance - attendance is down a lot more than sales because of ticket price increases.) In the music graph, I am showing the relative growth of recorded music and live events. Neither is adjusted for inflation, but the relative point still holds.
Thank you that helps a lot! If you ever have the chance to show inflation-adjusted graphs, that would be super appreciated for analyzing these trends. For example, the "recorded music" line looks like it's fully recovered from 1999, but if you adjust for inflation, I'm pretty sure it's still way down. And the post-COVID box office dip looks even worse when you consider how much inflation we had from 2020-2024.
Here is a link to a chart of the summer box office results for 1985-2025 adjusted for inflation - https://x.com/QantmLobster/status/1963086880129655082
The 5 summers with lowest box office grosses from 1985-2025 adjusted for inflation (in $B USD):
2025 – $3.596*
1986 – $3.599
2022 – $3.670
2024 – $3.687
1992 – $3.796
Notice three of the last four years are in the bottom-5. This does not include 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic.
*Results are still trickling in and when this is updated I expect 2025 and 1986 to be about tied.
Thank you! That decline trend looks particularly bad from 2013 on. But also, I had no idea that the 1990s to early 2000s were such a boom time! People were worried about home video killing the box office, but the movies adjusted. Will they adjust again to streaming?
Yes. Something happened in the late 1990's to elevate the entire industry for almost 20 years until the long decline began. I have tried to figure out what could elevate the industry that way at that time and the only three possibilities are DVD/Blu_ray drove incremental attendance, wide adoption of the internet led to attendance, or finally ticket prices rose at a rate faster than inflation.
Sidenote - I prefer using Trimester 2 as the definition of summer moviegoing season. The traditional industry definition is from the first Friday in May through Labor Day. The problem with that is due to the quirks of the Gregorian Calendar, some summers are 123 days long and others are 130, and some summers get an extra weekend. So it is never truly an apples-to-apples comparison. While trimester 2 is always the same.
And while we are on the topic… This is older but it is the inflation adjusted box office for Q1.
https://x.com/VanFalk_/status/1904962703241941287
Really excellent piece, Doug.
If you define summer moviegoing season as trimester 2, this summer was the worst year since 1985 when adjusted for inflation. I can't find reliable data older than 1985 so it could be even longer.
Trimester 2 is not the industry's traditional definition of summer (first Friday in May through Labor Day) but I prefer it because it offers a true apples-to-apples way to look at the results annually.
That’s interesting and certainly tracks. The claim I make in this piece is that this is probably due mostly to higher price sensitivity/selectivity by consumers who have so many free options and not the appeal of the content itself. So…it’s a structural problem. Admittedly, it’s hard to prove, it’s just an inference. Wondering if you agree!
It seems the industry elites, supported by the trade rags, want to try to blame the problem on the pandemic. Their hope is that once we have enough distance from the pandemic (and strike) behind us, things will return to normal. That is not happening. At the end of each summer there is a new excuse as to why it will be back to normal next year - "Survive until '25." When I look at those charts of inflation adjusted box office, it is clear the decline began years before the pandemic and the pandemic was an accelerant not a cause.
Something structural has been driving this trend for more than a decade now.