It is not true to say that people have enough video content available “for free” on YouTube: we either pay a subscription fee or have to watch a huge amount of video ads. This means it has to be rewarding anyhow. We might be open to spend 2 or 3 minutes watching entirely AI generated video while the technology behind is surprising, but eventually we’ll not care about how that video was made and enjoy it for its content: the story, the characters, the setting, etc. So, I believe people will eventually accept video AI except when the characters matter. Otherwise, it feels like an animation movie and these are set apart even without the involvement of AI at all.
Thank you so much, what a great and solid analysis! Beats 99,9% of my linkedin feed for sure.
I'm in the advertising film business, and there's 2 things I can already tell:
1) your second factor - audience acceptance - is irrelevant in our ecosystem as long as the quality is good enough, which it obviously already is. The 100% ai generated COKE xmas commercials were tested with audiences and people loved them, no pushback there.
2) "Studios have used these technologies to marginally reduce production costs, say 15-25%." That does not seem "marginal" to me! As we pitch each&every project against at least 2 competitors, a 20% cost advantage is a MASSIVE business advantage over the competition. I wish we could harness AI's potential to be 20% less costly than the competition (but then again, if we can, then the competition also can).
For now, these cost cutting advantages have not arrived in our ecosystem. I assume that is to a large extent based on legal uncertainties around the use of AI, and will soon change drastically once the legal frameworks get adjusted to what's technically achievable.
...i think you are right about the synthecism...the next generations are being raised on minecraft and roblox and fortnite etc. -- as more and more synthetic content gets fed and normalized the revolt will dcrease...color tv...widescreen...compressed h264...hammered tiny videos on phones, etc. ...the consumer continually embraces volume changes...
Love the way you lay out the scenarios here Doug. I think we'll end up somewhere on the far right half of that blob, on or a little north of the x axis. I think there could be an initial spike in consumer acceptance that takes it higher up the y axis, followed by a correction where consumers start to seek real human actors (at least in the starring roles) again. But I think they'll be cool with pretty much everything else being AI-generated. Either way, putting bounds around the potential scenarios is really useful!
I have already been mixing human actors with AI actor delivery and reads. Why bother? Because sometimes the AI does it better. Audio leads video and I can only imagine that this will be the same with AI video. Want an angrier reaction? Move the slider up a notch. Watch what happens with AI avatars on TikTok. If there's one that creates a cult of personality, some producer will license it for a TV series
It is not true to say that people have enough video content available “for free” on YouTube: we either pay a subscription fee or have to watch a huge amount of video ads. This means it has to be rewarding anyhow. We might be open to spend 2 or 3 minutes watching entirely AI generated video while the technology behind is surprising, but eventually we’ll not care about how that video was made and enjoy it for its content: the story, the characters, the setting, etc. So, I believe people will eventually accept video AI except when the characters matter. Otherwise, it feels like an animation movie and these are set apart even without the involvement of AI at all.
Thank you so much, what a great and solid analysis! Beats 99,9% of my linkedin feed for sure.
I'm in the advertising film business, and there's 2 things I can already tell:
1) your second factor - audience acceptance - is irrelevant in our ecosystem as long as the quality is good enough, which it obviously already is. The 100% ai generated COKE xmas commercials were tested with audiences and people loved them, no pushback there.
2) "Studios have used these technologies to marginally reduce production costs, say 15-25%." That does not seem "marginal" to me! As we pitch each&every project against at least 2 competitors, a 20% cost advantage is a MASSIVE business advantage over the competition. I wish we could harness AI's potential to be 20% less costly than the competition (but then again, if we can, then the competition also can).
For now, these cost cutting advantages have not arrived in our ecosystem. I assume that is to a large extent based on legal uncertainties around the use of AI, and will soon change drastically once the legal frameworks get adjusted to what's technically achievable.
Smart and incisive. Well done. Thanks for this.
...i think you are right about the synthecism...the next generations are being raised on minecraft and roblox and fortnite etc. -- as more and more synthetic content gets fed and normalized the revolt will dcrease...color tv...widescreen...compressed h264...hammered tiny videos on phones, etc. ...the consumer continually embraces volume changes...
Love the way you lay out the scenarios here Doug. I think we'll end up somewhere on the far right half of that blob, on or a little north of the x axis. I think there could be an initial spike in consumer acceptance that takes it higher up the y axis, followed by a correction where consumers start to seek real human actors (at least in the starring roles) again. But I think they'll be cool with pretty much everything else being AI-generated. Either way, putting bounds around the potential scenarios is really useful!
I have already been mixing human actors with AI actor delivery and reads. Why bother? Because sometimes the AI does it better. Audio leads video and I can only imagine that this will be the same with AI video. Want an angrier reaction? Move the slider up a notch. Watch what happens with AI avatars on TikTok. If there's one that creates a cult of personality, some producer will license it for a TV series